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Nicole Rae Baerg

Political Economy, Political Institutions, Central Banking, Political Text Analysis, Computational Social Science

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Research

Dividends of Power: Local Governance and Rural Redistribution

Are directors who govern natural resources biased towards their home districts? The literature predicts that they will be but we argue that mixed-territorial seat allocation can attenuate directors’ incentives for home bias. When a regional director represents one community among several directors competing for a fixed budget, advocating for one’s own community is constrained and thus directors are dissuaded from rent-seeking behaviours. We test our theory using the Columbia Basin Trust, a natural resource fund that distributes compensation for hydropower development across southeastern British Columbia. Using synthetic control methods to estimate the Trust’s effect on regional development, and a 2000 to 2025 panel of grants matched to board membership, we find positive developmental returns and no evidence of home-district bias. Communities with place-based representation fare no better than those without, and this holds whether that director holds an official regional appointment or a provincial appointment without an assigned territory. Our findings demonstrate that board-level institutional design is consequential for the success of development and redistribution.

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Automated Detection of Emotion in Central Bank Communication: A Warning

(with Carola Binder)

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Council Checks of the Commission under the European Semester

(with Mark Hallerberg)

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Central Bank Communication as Public Opinion? Experimental Evidence

(with Dominik Duell and Will Lowe)

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Divided Committees and Strategic Vagueness

(with Colin Krainin)

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Opportunistic, not Optimal Delegation: The Political Origins of Central Bank Independence

(with Julia Gray and Jakob Willisch) 

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